Wildside TIMES #2 - The Weather Guru

“The Name (The Weather Guru) came from ex Algoa Fm DJ Daron Mann, who a; ways referred to me as The Weather Guru in interviews. So yes, I have been in this chair at the SA Weather Service for 40 years.”

Garth Sampson Is The Weather Guru

As a ‘weather historian’ or someone with weather stats at your fingertips, what do you think will happen in the Kouga region regarding the drought?

This region’s first written weather history was in 1823: “Settler’s homes were flooded after a prolonged drought.” One does not have to be a nuclear scientist to know what will end this drought. Yes, a flood will come. The million-dollar question is when. If the drought continues for another year or two, it will become the worst in history. Statistically, we are long overdue not only for a “flood” but a flood of catastrophic proportions.

Why do you think that so many people are not taking this thing seriously? So there are still people watering their grass.

I will probably be crucified for this, but I will scream if I hear the word Nooitgedacht again. “We will never run out of water because of Nooitgedacht.” Utter bullshit, especially in your area, St Francis. Nooitgedacht is the purification works coming from the Gariep Pipeline. It supplements the NMBMM water supply and only the city’s eastern half. So Jeffreys, St Francis and the western half of PE will not benefit. PE uses 280 plus meg litres a day. Nooitgedacht supplies 160 m/l now and only 210 at its peak. Do the math. We don’t have long before the Kromme dam system is empty!

The most straightforward way to catch water is off the roof and into a tank. Why do you think so many people are not doing this and are not listening to good advice?

All shout costs A 2k litre tank costs under R2k, so start with one. I have 20k litres, but that took me 10 years to amass. Jamaica has no dams. Each house has 50k tanks. Knowing that this region is drought-prone regularly, it is essential Also water quality. Water tanks and a water filter in a home are as important as a fridge and microwave. It should be a law to have tanks. Not only for the garden but plugged into your main water supply so you can use it in dire need or to reduce your water account. Just the savings in your water account pays for itself in a year. It’s a no brainer.

What are your thoughts about the current ‘wonky’ weather patterns and unusual weather phenomena across our region and country?

Not wonky. The interior got the predicted seasonal rain with the La Nina. It was well forecast. This little patch - St Francis to Cannon Rock to Uitenhage - is a bit of an enigma. I want to say we are cursed, but that is unscientific. It is part of our weather history. Remember 1823.

If a drought is broken by a flood, we might need to start making some really big boats. It might even be enough to flush the Kromme. What does history tell you about what could happen when the rain patterns shift? Only two cut-off lows in a row washed away the Sand River bridge the second time in 20212. If we get 5 cut-off lows in a row, we’re all going to be in trouble.

Yes, 2012 was a weird year. The wettest non-flood year on record. In other words, it virtually rained constantly for a year. Then, before the earth could recover, the following system was there. Hence even small events caused havoc. You just need one 1908, 1968 or 1981 event, then you have serious trouble. Those were catastrophic, and a flood of that proportion is long overdue.

8 WT